REPORT: One-third of global forest lost this century likely gone for good

Washington, D.C. | THE INDEPENDENT | One-third (34%) of all global forest lost between 2001 and 2024 is likely permanent — meaning trees in those areas are unlikely to grow back naturally — according to a new analysis by World Resources Institute (WRI) and Google DeepMind.

The report says  the impact is even more severe in tropical primary rainforests, where a staggering 61% of loss is tied to permanent land use change — a major setback for some of the planet’s most vital ecosystems for biodiversity and carbon storage.

Researchers also warn that while the remaining two-thirds of forest loss is typically linked to “temporary” disturbances like logging or wildfire — it can still have lasting consequences. Forests may take decades to recover. And even when they do, they don’t always return to full health.

The findings, made possible by an advanced AI model and satellite imagery and developed by Global Forest Watch, Land & Carbon Lab and Google DeepMind, offer the most detailed local, regional and global view to date of what’s driving forest loss — and what can be done about it.

“We’ve long known where forests are being lost. Now we better understand why,” said Michelle Sims, Research Associate at WRI. “This knowledge is essential to developing smarter actions at the regional, national and even local level — to protect remaining forests and restore degraded ones”.

The new dataset distinguishes drivers likely to cause permanent loss — such as expansion of agriculture, mining, infrastructure and settlements — which accounted for the 34% (177 million hectares) of global tree cover loss since 2001. Permanent agriculture alone made up 95% of that total. In tropical primary rainforests, drivers of permanent land use change drove an even greater share: 61% of loss (50.7 million hectares) — nearly the size of Thailand.

While the remaining two-thirds of forest loss stems from causes typically viewed as temporary — such as logging, wildfires, natural disturbances or shifting cultivation — recovery is not assured. Forest regeneration depends on how the land is managed afterward, the type of forest and the degree of environmental stress it faces.

“Just because trees grow back doesn’t mean forests return to their original state” said Radost Stanimirova, Research Associate at WRI. “They might store less carbon, have fewer species or be more vulnerable to future damage. And climate change is making many natural events like fires and pest outbreaks more intense and frequent, which makes it harder for forests to recover.”

What this means for people, nature and climate

Permanent forest loss has serious and far-reaching consequences: reduced carbon storage, accelerated biodiversity loss and heightened risks to water and food security — all at a time when the planet is already facing a deepening climate and ecological crisis. Even temporary losses can be dangerous; depending on how forests recover, they may still lead to long-term ecosystem degradation and a decline in the critical services forests provide.

What needs to happen now

The new data marks a significant advance for forest policy, addressing a crucial gap in global efforts to halt deforestation by 2030. By pinpointing the underlying causes of forest loss in different places, it enables policymakers, companies and communities around the world to design more targeted, effective solutions to tackle deforestation.

Researchers at WRI outline a set of urgent, evidence-based recommendations tailored to the specific drivers of forest loss. Among other priorities, they call for stronger Indigenous and local land rights, designing policies that reflect local farming and land use realities, improving how forests are managed and monitored and ensuring infrastructure and agricultural expansion are guided by strong environmental planning.

For example, enforcing laws like the EU Deforestation Regulation and supporting smallholder farmers with sustainable alternatives are key to tackling agriculture-driven loss. Meanwhile, reducing wildfire risk demands ecosystem-specific fire management and early warning systems.

Explore the data

Full recommendations for all drivers are detailed in a new article available on WRI.org. The full dataset is publicly available on Global Forest Watch, including interactive maps and  tools for visualizing, filtering and analyzing the data. This analysis includes updated data through 2024 and was made possible with early contributions from The Sustainability  Consortium.

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